Energy Systems Analysis (ESA)

Our team work on projects that, directly or indirectly, contribute to reduced GHG emissions, both nationally and internationally.

We develop and analyze energy scenarios, develop strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, analyze the composition of energy carriers and analyze possible future technology choices and energy efficiency solutions. ​ We analyze both cost-efficient design and operation of local energy systems, as well as overall analyses with a societal perspective, covering the connection between different energy sectors. ​

The effect of technology learning, new technologies, behavior aspects, flexibility solutions, new energy carriers, energy storage, sector coupling and political measures are key to our analyses. 

​Our energy system models are developed in close collaboration with national/local authorities, organizations, private sector (energy and industry), technology experts etc.​ The research team develop and use several types of mathematical models to increase the knowledge base related to the future energy system. 

Decision support
The analyses we perform are carried out to be able to make decisions about the energy system design and operation of various technologies and solutions (in short term) and to provide decision support for optimal investments (in long term).

Our analyses take into account uncertainty related to future energy demand, technology development and future policies in addition to considering the weather-dependent uncertainty of renewable electricity generation and temperature dependent demand (stochastic analysis). Our core competence is to analyse the interplay between different technologies, energy carriers, energy markets and sectors, and we use different analysis tools, models and methods for this.

Collaboration
ESA has broad international collaboration on the long-term energy systems modelling and are currently Operating Agent of the Technology Collaboration Programme IEA-ETSAP (www.iea-etsap.org).

We are also an active partner in the following Research Centers for renewable energy (FMEs):

• NTRANS (FME NTRANS – Norwegian Centre for Energy Transition Strategies – NTNU), working on economic analyses and optimization.
• MoZEES (FME MoZEES), working on Zero emission energy systems for transport

Scenario modeling / Scenario-modellering

IFE does scenario analysis and transition studies that map out different pathways the Norwegian and European energy system could follow over the coming years, focusing on policies, investments, technologies, and other choices that policy makers and other decision makers can influence.

We study the effect on the energy system of:​

• Flexibility and smart solutions​
• Energy and climate scenarios​
• Energy policy instruments​
• New energy markets​
• Uncertainty​
• User behaviour and acceptance​
• Pilots and implementation​

Local  energy system models / Lokale langsiktige energisystemmodeller

IFE performs modelling and analysis of local energy systems, such as week grid areas, communities, buildings, charging stations etc. The modelling provides insight into cost-effective design and operation of the system. We mainly use short-term energy system models, focusing on the optimal competition and interplay between energy carriers and technologies within the system.

The techno-economic optimization models for local energy systems can calculate cost-optimal design of distributed energy systems, including local power production, hydrogen systems, storage options and flexibility in end use demand.

For these analyses we have developed models in TIMES and Julia with hourly time resolution. The local models are used in project specific analysis to understand the details in a concrete case/area. The Julia model is developed specifically for hybrid systems to enable better decision support regarding technology choice, investment volume and timing of the investment.

National and international long-term energy system models / Nasjonale og internasjonale langsiktigeenergisystemmodeller

IFE works with long-term energy system models at a local, national and international level, focusing on cost-optimal investments and operation to meet the future energy demand at least cost.

We mainly use the modeling framework TIMES. TIMES is a long-term optimization model of the energy system​. The modelling framework is developed since 1981 by ETSAP, a Technology Collaboration program in IEA. We use the model to analyse cost-optimal development of the energy system with various assumptions on future policies, demand projections, technology development etc.

The national model IFE-Times-Norway is developed in collaboration with the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)​. The model is a technology-rich model divided into five geographical regions corresponding to the current electricity market spot price areas. The model provides operational and investment decisions of the whole energy system from 2018, towards 2050. The model has an option for stochastic modelling of weather-dependent power supply and heat demand

The European model IFE-TIMES-Europe is currently under development. In this model all European countries are represented by at least one node. We will use this model to understand the impact of trade of energy between Norway and Europe, and how the Norwegian energy system is influenced by the European development.

The department works with scenario analysis and transition studies that map out different pathways the Norwegian and European energy system could follow over the coming years, focusing on policies, investments, technologies, and other choices that policy makers and other decision makers can influence.

IFEs energy systems analysis group develops various models to be able to analyze the development of the energy system. We work with long-term energy system models at a local, national and international level, focusing on cost-optimal investments & operation to meet the future energy demand at least cost.

We also work with short-term simulation models, focusing on optimal operation and profitability of local energy systems. The department works with scenarios that map out different routes the Norwegian (and European) energy system could follow over the coming years, focusing on policies, investments, technologies and other choices that decision makers can influence.

In the development of optimization models, we build on our long-term experience on energy system analysis and mathematical modelling. We take an active role in analysing possible pathways to a low carbon future, and we use modelling tools to analyse the impact of technology change, new technologies, flexibility in energy consumption, flexibility in energy service demand, new energy carriers, new forms of energy storage, sector coupling, political instruments, etc.

Large scale energy system models
Researchers at ENSYS work with long-term energy system models at a local, national and international level, focusing on cost-optimal investments and operation to meet the future energy demand at least cost. The energy system model IFE-TIMES-Norway is a well-established model of the Norwegian energy system. The model is used to analyse cost-optimal development of the energy system with various assumption on future policies, demand projections, technology development etc. IFE-TIME-Norway is a technology-rich model divided into five geographical regions corresponding to the current electricity market spot price areas. The model provides operational and investment decisions of the whole energy system from 2018, towards 2050.

Local energy system models
Researchers at ENSYS work with models that provide insight into cost-effective design and operation for a single player in the energy system, such as for local energy systems in a building, or at a charging station, and often has a business perspective. We use short-term energy system models, focusing on optimal operation and profitability of local energy systems. We develop techno-economic optimization models for local energy systems, that can calculate cost-optimal dimension of distributed energy systems, including local power production, hydrogen systems, storage options and flexibility in end use demand.

Collaboration
Researchers at ENSYS work in the intersection between technology and society, and we work closely with social scientist to understand how to various actors behavior and acceptance of new technologies influence the transition to a low carbon future.

We also have close contact with those who work with technology and technology development, both internally at IFE, and externally, as we need to understand how to model various technological solutions.

The ENSYS department has broad international collaboration on the long-term energy systems modelling and are currently Operating Agent of the Technology Collaboration Programme IEA-ETSAP (www.iea-etsap.org).